Donald Trump has misjudged the complexity of confronting Iran by drawing false lessons from the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, according to a senior former United States diplomat with decades of experience in Latin America.
John Feeley, a former Marine helicopter pilot who went on to serve as US ambassador to Panama, told The Guardian that Trump had been "flush with victory" following Maduro's removal from power and appears to have concluded that a similar approach could be applied to the Iranian regime.
Feeley, widely regarded as one of the State Department's most respected former Latin America specialists, said the administration is now "reaping the bitter fruit" of that miscalculation. The situations in Venezuela and Iran, he argued, are fundamentally different in terms of geopolitical weight, military capability, and regional alliances - making any direct comparison dangerously flawed.
A warning about Cuba as well
Beyond Iran, Feeley expressed concern that the same pattern of overconfidence could extend to Cuba. He suggested the White House may be tempted to treat the island nation as another opportunity to replicate what it sees as a successful interventionist model, without fully accounting for the distinct political and historical dynamics at play.
The former ambassador's comments reflect a broader anxiety among some foreign policy analysts that the Trump administration has drawn sweeping strategic conclusions from a single regional success - conclusions that may not hold in more complex theaters of confrontation.
Context: the Maduro capture
Maduro's capture was widely seen as a significant foreign policy achievement for the Trump administration, ending years of international pressure and sanctions campaigns against his government. The operation appeared to validate an aggressive, coercive approach to adversarial regimes in the Western Hemisphere.
However, critics including Feeley argue that Venezuela's particular vulnerabilities - economic collapse, internal dissent, and relative international isolation - created conditions that do not translate to countries like Iran, which maintains a large and experienced military, strong regional proxy networks, and significant leverage over global energy markets.
Iran also carries far greater strategic significance on the world stage, with influence stretching across the Middle East through allied armed groups and diplomatic relationships with major powers including Russia and China.
Risks of miscalculation
Feeley's warning comes at a moment of heightened tension between Washington and Tehran. The Trump administration has pursued a policy of maximum pressure toward Iran, and any military or covert intervention would risk triggering a far broader regional conflict than anything seen in South America.
Foreign policy analysts have long cautioned that the dynamics governing regime change in one part of the world rarely transfer cleanly to another. Military planners, intelligence officials, and diplomatic veterans have consistently emphasized that each country presents its own set of conditions, alliances, and risks.
The Guardian, which reported Feeley's remarks, noted his background as both a military officer and a career diplomat gives him a perspective that bridges security strategy and statecraft - lending particular weight to his skepticism about the administration's current posture.
Whether the White House will adjust its approach in light of such criticism from experienced foreign service professionals remains unclear. The administration has not publicly commented on Feeley's specific assessment.
