Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has issued what diplomats might generously call a 'friendly advisory' to foreign leaders considering attending Russia's annual Victory Day parade on May 9 - and the subtext was not exactly subtle.
According to reporting by Deutsche Welle, Zelenskyy said he did 'not recommend' that representatives of states allied with Russia show up for the parade in Moscow. That's the kind of 'recommendation' that comes with a very specific set of implications when it comes from the leader of a country currently at war with the host nation.
A parade with some... logistical complications
The May 9 parade is one of Russia's most high-profile annual events, commemorating the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. The Kremlin typically uses it as a showcase of military hardware and national pride - a flex that hits differently when your military is simultaneously engaged in a full-scale invasion of a neighboring country.
Russia's own authorities reportedly share some of Zelenskyy's concerns about the day's proceedings - though from the opposite direction. Russian officials indicated they are worried about the possibility of Ukrainian strikes during or around the parade, according to Deutsche Welle. So it seems both sides of this conflict are, in their own way, suggesting Moscow might not be the safest tourist destination on May 9.
The diplomatic math here is pretty straightforward
Zelenskyy's warning is clearly directed at leaders from countries that have maintained close ties with Russia despite international pressure - think Central Asian states, certain African nations, and others who have walked a careful line since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Attending the parade would be a visible act of solidarity with Moscow, and Zelenskyy is making crystal clear that Ukraine notices, and that the skies over Red Square on that particular day carry a non-trivial amount of uncertainty baked in.
It is worth noting that Zelenskyy stopped short of making any explicit threats. The statement, as reported, was framed as a warning rather than a promise - leaving just enough ambiguity to do the diplomatic heavy lifting without crossing any formal lines.
Tick tock
With May 9 approaching, all eyes will be on which foreign dignitaries choose to make the trip to Moscow anyway - and whether the parade unfolds without incident. History suggests the Kremlin will put on a spectacle regardless. Whether the guest list looks like a who's-who of Russia's remaining friends, or a rather sparse affair, will itself be a geopolitical data point worth watching.
