A new poll is projecting major electoral disruption across Britain in the May local elections, with Nigel Farage's Reform UK poised for significant gains at Labour's expense in traditional strongholds, according to reporting by The Guardian.
The survey, conducted by JL Partners and featured in The Telegraph, projects that Plaid Cymru would become the largest party in Wales for the first time, winning 33 of 96 seats. Reform UK would follow with 29 seats, while Labour would be reduced to just 17 - a dramatic fall for a party that has long dominated Welsh politics.
The findings, described in The Telegraph's coverage as pointing to a "seismic" political shift, also suggest Reform UK is making inroads into Labour's traditional heartlands in northern and central England, commonly referred to as the Red Wall - the bloc of constituencies that began swinging away from Labour during the 2019 general election.
Labour responds with gender policy attack on Reform
Amid the polling pressure, the Labour Party moved to draw a sharp contrast with Reform UK on issues related to women's rights and protections. Labour claimed Reform UK would not adequately protect women, though the specific policy disputes underlying that claim were not detailed in the available source material.
The electoral projections come as parties prepare for local council elections across 136 English local authorities, alongside contests in Wales. The full methodology and data from JL Partners had not yet been published at the time of The Guardian's reporting.
Context and caveats
Local election polls carry inherent uncertainties, and projected seat counts in proportional or multi-member systems can shift considerably based on voter turnout and tactical voting patterns. The Welsh Senedd uses a mixed electoral system, which can amplify or dampen swings compared to first-past-the-post contests.
Nevertheless, the projected figures represent a significant departure from recent Welsh political history. Labour has been the dominant force in Welsh devolved politics since the Senedd was established in 1999, and a result placing the party third would mark an unprecedented setback.
Reform UK has seen sustained polling growth nationally since the 2024 general election, in which the party won five Westminster seats. Farage's party has positioned itself as a populist alternative to both the Conservative and Labour parties, drawing support from voters dissatisfied with the political mainstream.
Full details of the JL Partners poll, including sample size, fieldwork dates, and margins of error, were expected to be released separately by the polling firm.
