If you had 'complete ceasefire collapse by spring' on your bingo card, congratulations - you are unfortunately winning. According to The Guardian, Hezbollah launched multiple drone strikes targeting Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, while Israel responded with airstrikes of its own and issued fresh displacement orders for residents in the south of the country.
The situation is, to put it diplomatically, not great.
So what actually happened?
Hezbollah claimed its Tuesday drone attacks injured several Israeli soldiers. The Israeli military, for its part, has not confirmed any casualties - which is pretty standard practice, but does leave the actual human toll of the exchange somewhat murky. What is confirmed is that both sides are actively engaged in military operations in the area, ceasefire or not.
Israel also issued new displacement orders for communities in southern Lebanon, a move that signals ongoing military intent in the region and adds to the already significant humanitarian strain on Lebanese civilians caught in the middle.
A ceasefire in name only?
The word 'fraying' keeps appearing in reporting around this ceasefire - and at this point, 'fraying' might be doing a lot of heavy lifting. When both sides are launching strikes and issuing displacement orders, the agreement starts to look less like a ceasefire and more like a scheduling conflict where both parties just happen to be fighting in the same place.
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was brokered late last year amid enormous international pressure, and was seen at the time as a rare diplomatic win. That optimism is now being stress-tested in real time, with drone footage and airstrike reports replacing the cautious hope of just a few months ago.
What comes next?
That is, frankly, anyone's guess. Neither side has shown strong signals of wanting to fully re-escalate into full-blown war - but neither appears willing to fully respect the terms of the existing agreement either. For Lebanese civilians in the south, the distinction probably matters very little when displacement orders keep arriving and the skies stay busy.
The international community, which cheered the ceasefire's arrival, now faces the uncomfortable question of what to do when the agreement it championed quietly stops working on a Tuesday afternoon.
Watch this space - because apparently the ceasefire certainly isn't.
