If you were designing a geopolitical disaster in a lab, you might end up with something like this: two of the world's most self-described dealmakers, both walking away from the same war empty-handed, and increasingly annoyed at each other about it.
That is more or less the situation laid out by Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in an interview with France 24's Sharon Gaffney. Miller did not mince words, describing Israel's war against Iran as a 'strategic disaster for the state of Israel.'
The goals that weren't
According to Miller, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went into this conflict with a clear wish list: diminish Iran's support for its regional proxies, and reassert Israeli deterrence across the Middle East. The problem? Neither goal has been meaningfully achieved. Instead, Israeli military operations remain bogged down in Lebanon, tying up resources and attention in ways that were not part of anyone's victory lap speech.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump - who has made no secret of wanting out - is reportedly on a collision course with Netanyahu as Washington tries to extricate itself from a war that is burning political capital faster than jet fuel.
The buddy system is breaking down
The Trump-Netanyahu relationship, once celebrated as a geopolitical bromance for the ages, is showing serious signs of strain. Both men entered this chapter with goals. Both men's goals remain unmet. And if Miller's framing is accurate, neither side has the clean off-ramp they were hoping for.
Trump's desire to wrap things up and pivot elsewhere is clashing directly with the Israeli military's operational reality on the ground - particularly in Lebanon, where the situation has apparently not resolved itself on anyone's preferred timeline.
So what now?
Miller's assessment, as reported by France 24, paints a picture of a war that has delivered strategic pain without strategic gain for Israel. That is a rough combination at the best of times, and an especially uncomfortable one when your most important ally is publicly signaling that it wants the whole thing wrapped up.
Whether Netanyahu can thread this needle - satisfying domestic expectations, managing a restless Washington, and somehow extracting a win from a conflict Miller calls a disaster - remains very much an open question. What is not an open question, apparently, is that the current trajectory is not working for anyone involved.
The full interview with Aaron David Miller is available via France 24.
